Patek Philippe has become, without exaggeration, one of the safest forms of investment, regardless of the model. But the market is basically divided into second-hand and vintage watches. The first category is the one in which the most dramatic swings occur, as has been the case with all Nautiluses for the past two years, while in the vintage sector the trend is slower but much more constant and reliable. This is no small difference and does not depend solely on the age of the pieces, but also on the different philosophies of those who approach this market. It follows that the second wrist market is very lively and constantly evolving, as it is influenced by the launch of new products, as well as by fashions and also by social media.
The case of the Tiffany Nautilus, which went for the frankly incomprehensible sum of over $6 million last December, is emblematic. The second-wrist market allows for great bargains, but its emotional and unstable trend also entails risks.
Leaving aside the Tiffany, which is a story in itself, any recent Nautilus is bound to triple or quadruple in value. At the December 2021 Phillips auction in New York, a 2019 5711/1A.010, estimated at between $40,000 and $50,000, went for $280,980.
Turning to the vintage market, stellar quotations are not uncommon but their trend is much slower and more predictable. As far as the Nautilus is concerned, the 3700. for example, is already considered vintage, while some special editions or those with a particular history are rightfully in the vintage sector even if they are more recent.
Like the 2014 5004A full calendar split-seconds chronograph, which fetched CHF 749,700 at the Phillips auction last November in Geneva, with an estimate of between CHF 300,000 and CHF 500,000. This is a rare case of an adjudication at a figure above the estimate, which is unlikely to go down again, unlike the second wrist market.
Stacked from 5 images. Method=B (R=23,S=9)
