The figures of a Morgan Stanley report on the watch market in 2020 have the community talking and excited.
Numbers that bring to the fore the predictable turnover losses of all manufacturers, and which confirm that the major players, with Rolex in the lead, are holding their own. Although the watchmaking giant has also felt the consequences of the pandemic crisis, the crowned house remains at the top of the list of the biggest names in the Swiss watchmaking industry, with turnover and unit sales estimates that have Morgan Stanley calculating a market share of even 24.9%, compared to 22% in 2019 and 8.8% for the second place.
These are not official or confirmed figures, as not all companies, and especially Rolex, are required to disclose turnover figures, let alone retail sales. But they do give one pause for thought.
According to the merchant bank's estimates, at the same - if not a slight increase - in the number of pieces sold, the average price of each watch seems to be falling. A figure that should be interpreted as positive, in my opinion: a sign that interest in the product remains, even if economic conditions make the public lean towards a lower price range than in 2019, up to 30% less. Not a little.
The industry is thus impoverished, and if it gets through 2020 without collapsing (the second quarter of 2020 had even recorded -61.6%), it brings home a drop in exports from Switzerland of 21.8%, as stated in the official communiqué (this one) of the Watch Federation published on 28 January 2021. Loss recovered thanks to the incredible recovery of the Chinese market, which recorded +50.1% in the second half of the year.
Remarkably, the drop in exports is similar to that of 2009, when the financial crisis brought more than one national economy to its knees. Inevitable, however, is the fact that in the Morgan Stanley report's estimates, the same names that have continued to grow in the collectors' sector, especially in auction windows, perform 'positively'.
Somewhat surprising, therefore, is the clamour around an assessment that differs little from what we could all have imagined on our own, without giving the numbers: in a time of crisis, the brands that are able to transmit greater security are gaining market share, keeping at the top those names that have conquered the highest positions with the constant quality of their products and marketing that has always been unadventurous: Rolex, Omega, Cartier and Patek Philippe. Ça va sans dire.
Dody Giussani
